(Congressional Agenda) – According to the Daily Caller, a decision recently made by the New York Court of Appeals could result in several major losses for House Republicans next year. This might cost the GOP its control of the House of Representatives, which it currently has by a very slim margin. If we lose the House, that’s very bad news and essentially nullifies any sort of benefit to having the White House. All branches of government need to be under control of conservatives if we want to dismantle the deep state and pull our country out of the gutter morally and economically.
“On Tuesday, the court ruled for the plaintiffs in Hoffmann v. New York State Independent Redistricting Commission, a case where several voters challenged the state’s current congressional maps that were drawn by a court-appointed special master in 2022, based on which Republicans picked up five seats in the House and accounted for their five-seat majority. The court’s decision to order the commission to redraw the state’s maps, which the Democratic-controlled legislature must approve, may lead to new district boundaries that include more Democratic-leaning precincts and result in all Republican incumbents losing reelection,” the piece divulged.
“The Democrats, you know, they have a lot more to gain by trying to make it where the legislature redraws the new maps,” Shawn Donahue, an assistant professor of politics at the University of Buffalo and an expert on the issue of voting rights and representation, went on to explain to the Daily Caller News Foundation. “The long and the short of it is Democrats hold super majorities in both chambers of the legislature and, you know…the commission is only technically advisory, it’s the legislature that ultimately makes the decision now.”
In the Harkenrider v. Hochul case from 2022, the court rejected maps that were enacted by the state’s legislative branch for partisan gerrymandering. The commission ended up deadlocking during the approval process for the proposed maps as all Democrats voted in favor of them while Republicans voted against them. Democrats enjoy a two-thirds majority in both chambers, so they have the free choice to decide whether or not to accept the maps if they should provide advantages for the their candidates running in state elections.
Right now, Dems have a meager 15D-11R majority in NY's House seats. This ruling could put up to six GOP seats in deeper danger, including:#NY01 Nick LaLota (R)#NY03 VACANT (R)#NY04 Anthony D'Esposito (R)#NY17 Mike Lawler (R)#NY19 Marc Molinaro (R)#NY22 Brandon Williams (R)
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) December 12, 2023
“The question would be is how far Democrats want to try to push any advantage,” Donahue stated. “When they drew their map last time, it was designed to have 22 Democrats and four Republicans. We don’t know if they’ll maybe try to go that aggressive…the seat that’s kind of questionable, that I think where Democrats would try to change the lines substantially, would be the Staten Island-based 11th district with Nicole Malliotakis.”
Malliotakis has served two-terms in the Staten Island-based district, which features a very large demographic composed of both law enforcement officials and firefighters. It’s one of the most conservative parts of the city. During the 2020 presidential election, former President Donald Trump won the area by a whopping 11 percentage points over current commander-in-chief Joe Biden. She topped this margin, beating her predecessor Max Rose by 23 points. That’s insane.
“[For] six other Republicans, you know, reelection would be clear perils…[Nick] LaLota, the [George] Santos seat, [Anthony] D’Esposito, [Mike] Lawler, [Marc] Molinaro and Brandon Williams. I think all of those could see their districts [lost],” Donahue said, making predictions about the outcome.
“Santos was expelled by the House of Representatives on Dec. 1 by a resolution sponsored by D’Esposito and his New York Republican colleagues. A special election for his district, which is the wealthiest in New York and covers parts of Queens and Nassau County, will be held on Feb. 13, 2024, with the Democratic nominee, former Rep. Tom Suozzi, leading in polls,” the Daily Caller reported.
In three hypothetical NY-03 special election matchups, Suozzi, hovering around 44%, would defeat Sapraicone by a margin of 6 points, Pilip by 3 and Curry by 4, according to the full survey shared by Curry’s campaign. pic.twitter.com/kKqxKN4jta
— Matthew Kassel (@matthewkassel) December 6, 2023
While lots of folks are doom-and-gloom about the changes, not everyone is worried they will have a big impact on the outcome of the race. A political consultant for candidates in New York, Vice Casale, believes the new alignment in the city’s districts will just make things more complicated.
“The Democrats cannot just redistrict New York Republicans into oblivion,” Casale remarked in a written statement addressed to the DCNF. “There are still too many seats where they can only make so many changes before it starts to affect other districts. For example, making Congressman Williams’ district bluer to take the seat back and then making Congressman [Pat] Ryan’s district bluer to help protect him will only help Congressman Molinaro by giving him a redder district.”
“Regarding Lawler, who is being challenged by his predecessor, former Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones, Casale suggested he had a strong chance of retaining his seat even with the threat of redistricting. ‘[T]here still appears to be a complete misunderstanding of Rockland County politics and underestimating of the Congressman’s popularity,’ he said of New York Democrats,” the report revealed.
Those who are of the belief that they can just take this law to the Supreme Court, I have some bad news. Since the decision reached by the court is a political question concerning a matter of state law, the judgment is not reviewable by SCOTUS.
“Maybe the [D]emocrats can pick up a seat or two, but honestly, they thought they did a good job…two years ago but did a pretty crappy job,” Casale continued. “Getting a second chance doesn’t mean they will get it right.”
As you might imagine, lawmakers who could be negatively impacted by the decision have had a largely unpleasant reaction to it.
“While I disagree with the decision to jettison NY’s current congressional map, I urge those drawing the new map to make the new districts compact & competitive. Doing so ensures the 2024 election is about important policies, rather than predetermined partisan outcomes.” LaLota noted in an email that was sent to the DCNF, while a spokesperson representing Molinaro made a reference to a tweet by the candidate on the issue.
“There’s nothing fair about this,” he declared.
There's nothing fair about this. Dragging redistricting on for years will create more confusion and frustration for voters. We have to get these lines finalized. In the meantime, my focus will be on serving #NY19https://t.co/EAoAAsvLc7
— Marc Molinaro #NY19 🇺🇸 (@marcmolinaro) December 12, 2023
Copyright 2023. CongressionalAgenda.com
